NM-Sen: As mcjoan wrote earlier, Democrat Tom Udall is kicking all kinds of ass in the Senate race. He has a monster lead, 25+ points, over both his Republican opponents, Heather "Nipplegate" Wilson and Steve Pearce.

Udall started the race with a wide lead, and as the race has carried on, it has only expanded. Pearce, and especially Wilson, were considered formidable opponents before the race began, but it is currently looking like a potential blowout reminiscent of Minnesota Sen. Amy Klobuchar's crushing victory over Mark Kennedy in 2006.

Best of all, Pearce leads Wilson in the GOP primary. Pearce is the further-right candidate, so he cedes "moderate" ground to Udall. It's a bad break for Wilson, but look on the bright side; she'll have plenty of time to devote to keeping the airwaves safe from loose nipples.

ME-Sen: More splendid news; Democratic Rep. Tom Allen is slowly, but surely closing the gap in his Senate race against Susan Collins. The latest Rasmussen numbers:

Rasmussen. April numbers in parentheses.

Collins is one of the most popular Senators in the country, due to her "moderate" image. She represents the only hope for GOP candidates in the fall; to win by distancing themselves as much as possible from the national party. And even so, Allen is steadily gaining on her, and is within 10 points with plenty of race to go.

Say it with me; everything's coming up Democrat!

KS-Sen: And now for the most shocking poll of all, another Rasmussen poll: Incumbent Senator Pat Roberts leads Democratic challenger Jim Slattery by only 12 points. This is in a state where no Democrat has been elected to the Senate since (wait for it) 1932, and against a challenger who hasn't run for office since 1994.

Rasmussen. 5/13. MoE +/- 4%

There's a long way to go before November, and Slattery's already competitive. Having entered the race late, Slattery has yet to begin campaigning in earnest, though his fundraising is going very well. Roberts enjoys 60% approval according to the Rasmussen poll, and yet manages just 52% against Slattery.

These Rasmussen polls are just shocking.

WA-Gov: Rasmussen has one last piece of beautiful news: Washington's Democratic Governor Christine Gregoire, who won a narrow (and hotly contested) victory over Republican Dino Rossi in 2004, has opened up a double-digit lead in their rematch:

Rasmussen.5/12. MoE +/- 4%. 3/27 numbers in parentheses.

That lead has gone from one point to 11 points in less than two months. Obama also enjoys a double-digit lead over McCain in the state.

NJ-Sen: Rep. Rob Andrews stands alone among New Jersey's Democratic establishment in thinking he'd make a better senator than incumbent Frank R. Lautenberg.

Andrews' colleague Frank Pallone has some particularly harsh words for him:

Seven members of Congress and the mayor of Trenton spoke at the press conference at the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee (DSCC) headquarters, reaffirming their support for Lautenberg and repeating charges that Andrews touts the GOP line and therefore, is wrong for New Jersey.

"On too many occasions he (Andrews) sided with Bush and the Republicans," Rep. Frank Pallone Jr. of the 6th District said, later adding that he "often wondered" that if New Jersey didn’t lean Democratic, whether Andrews would change his party affiliation.

Meanwhile, Lautenberg's colleague Robert Menendez has the highest praise for him:

Menendez said Lautenberg has "taken on" special interests, opposed the war in Iraq, and voted in support of his own beliefs even when they weren’t politically popular.

"New Jersey needs a proven, effective progressive Democrat who consistently stands up to the Bush Republicans," Menendez said. "That Senator is Frank Lautenberg."

Here's a note to Andrews; it is pure folly to try and wage a primary challenge from the right, in a blue state, during a year which marks a Democratic ascendancy as this one does.

House Races

TN-09: Things look very bright for progressive Democratic incumbent Steve Cohen, as he has a 52-point lead over primary challenger Nikki Tinker.

Seems like there's something to be said for going to Washington and doing right by your district. Who knew?

KS-02: More primary polling here, as Republican Jim Ryun, legendary track star and former right-wing Representative, faces off against the moderate GOP candidate, former Kansas Treasurer Leeroy Lynn Jenkins.

Ryun not only has a huge 44-point lead, but his lead has actually expanded in the last year, despite Jenkins being fairly well-known in the district. I guess Jenkins is trying to keep her powder dry, but it may be time for her to start trying to take down Ryun.

Because incumbent Democratic Rep. Nancy Boyda defeated Ryun once already, and because Ryun, as the far-right candidate, presents the starkest contrast between himself and Boyda, I think it's probably best for us that Ryun win this primary. This is a tough district and Boyda will have a fight on her hands either way, but I certainly won't cry if Ryun emerges as the candidate.

KS-04: Alex Parker of the MTV Street Team has put together a nifty video featuring 30-year-old State Senator Donald Betts, now running for the U.S. House against incumbent Todd Tiahrt. Check it out.

As a state senator, Betts already has a considerable base of political support in Wichita. It's a decidedly uphill race for Betts against Tiahrt in a strongly Republican district, but the race is not hopeless; both Governor Kathleen Sebelius and former Democratic Attorney General Paul Morrison won the district in 2006.

IN-02: Businessman Luke Puckett, though backed by the NRCC, had quite a bit of trouble winning his primary...against a man who spoke at a neo-Nazi meeting earlier this year.

'04/'06 candidate Tony Zirkle (R) said he's "willing to talk to any group that invites him," and that's why he spoke to a weekend gathering in Chicago of the Amer. National Socialist Workers Party. The "occasion was a celebration" of the 119th anniversary of the birth of Adolf Hitler. Zirkle stood at a podium "in front of a larger-than-life portrait" of Hitler, "flanked" by an American flag and a Nazi flag.

During a 4/21 presser, Zirkle said he accepted the invitation to "spread his anti-pornography message." He said he's "misunderstood," and that his "real mission" is to "rid the country of pornography." To "punctuate his message," Zirkle "shredded an original copy" of a '69 Penthouse magazine.

But an "account of the gathering" says "Zirkle spoke on his history" as a state's atty in IN, "prosecuting Jewish and Zionist criminal gangs involved in trafficking prostitutes and pornography" from Russia.

Puckett lost to this Zirkle fellow in 5 of the district's 12 counties. Anyone want to take bets on how he performs against Democratic incumbent Joe Donnelly?

Race tracker wiki: NM-Sen NJ-Sen ME-Sen KS-Sen WA-Gov IN-02 TN-09 KS-04 KS-02

Crossposted from Left Toon Lane, Bilerico Project & My Left Wing


click to enlarge

In South Bend on Monday.

For those of you who don't know, Dyngus Day is a Polish Holiday that celebrates the end of the often restrictive observance of lent and the joy of Easter.

In South Bend, it's a HUGE Holiday celbration.
The Schools and factories close, while everyone drinks and shakes politician's hands at the local Falcon's Clubs!

I am all for running everywhere, and the 50 state strategy.

But neither we nor the Republicans are running everywhere (at least not yet!) In this series, I will look at where we are not running (I am not going to look at where Republicans are not running, as I have no desire to help Republicans, however modestly)

This diary is partly inspired by the great work done by BENAWU.

crossposted to swingstateproject

Just when the GOP is starting to catch some small breaks in the Senate, the situation in the House is rapidly deteriorating. As many had predicted, a growing number of Republican representatives do not find the prospect of life in the minority appealing and are calling it quits. Unfortunately for Republicans, a large majority of them represent competitive districts. The latest retirement were particularly shocking because they were completely unexpected -- especially Rep. Ferguson's in NJ-07. Democrats have golden opportunities to pick-up all of these seats, especially if the environment continues to favor them. But this also means Republicans will be forced to play defense and will not be able to contest that many Democratic-held seats, no matter how vulnerable they might be.

The full ratings are available here, at Campaign Diaries.

Dogging the Bluedogs and holding them accountable is as important now as challenging in an election. When they promise something in a campaign and then fail to follow through, we need to be there reminding them!

This is a profile of another BushBlueDog in participation with the BushDog campaign.
Please sign up with this effort to identify and target BlueDog Democrats.

One of the first steps Joe Donnelly took after winning his election in Northern Indiana's 2nd District was to join the Conservative BlueDog Democratic Caucus. He constantly states how he wants to join with his friends across the aisle and has worked hard with other Bluedogs to undermine the formation of a united Democratic caucus to end the occupation in Iraq and cause further erosion of civil rights and the Constitution.

Yes, it's very early, but hey, we live in the age of perpetual campaigning, so let's jump on it.

I am ranking my list of House 2008 Defense (the top 25 at least): vulnerable freshmen, or vulnerable long-time incumbents. Since we only know for sure so far of one open seat (CO-02), I am not including open seats.

Read below the fold!

The Republicans are already regrouping to try to take back the House of Representatives from the Democrats (as Kos's recent Front Page entry indicates) and there are 18 Seats that are likely to be heavily targeted by the Republicans (enough to take back the House) in 2008.

This is about history as well as the future, and I think you'll find it fun.

I recently read the diary of Pennsylvania State Rep. Mark Cohen, a Democrat who reminisced fondly about a "Rockefeller Republican" Pennsylvania governor who died this week. I posted my own recollections of Gov. Nelson Rockefeller (R-NY) and my minor involvement with his presidential campaigns when I was a teenager. Cohen sent a blast from the past which brought to mind a long-forgotten Democrat, John Raber, who ran in IN-02 in 1964, the year of the Johnson landslide after President Kennedy's assassination. Raber ran against the House Minority Leader, Charles A. Halleck, and even in a Democratic landslide, Raber had no chance, not in this district which was once all cornfields.

Catch the rapscallions after the break.

Just thought I'd throw in a nothing little post congratulating my home state of Indiana for doing it's part in turning over 3 Republican seats to the Democrats. We took care of 20% of the need. Hopefully the other 49 states can take care of the other 80%.

Congratulations to Brad Ellsworth, Joe Donnelly, and Baron Hill for strong campaigns and their apparent victories.

Polls have now closed in Indiana. Delware County will be the last to close at 8:40pm.  In this thread, I will live blog all night the results and we can cheer on Dr. Tom Hayhurst (IN-3) and our very own Barry Welsh (IN-6) to victory! Turnout has been reported as heavy today by the Ft. Wayne News Sentinel.

Added the close IN-2 & IN-7 races! Congratulations to Gov. Jennifer Granholm and Debbie Stabenow of my home state of Michigan, the folks back home were really pulling for you and I did GOTV for Gov. Jennifer myself. I want to thank Barry and Sherri, Dr. Tom and Judy for putting up a truely admirable fight against the local Republicans. We can all be proud of you!

Hey all!   Wanted to clear up what the scoop is regaring the Indiana poll closing times and also post a thread for Indiana stuff -- I've got the "official" Indiana Election Day Live Blogging Thread coming up later.  So here's the scoop- on the order, and the poll closing times, and a fun story to end the day....

 

Two Indiana congressional candidates in tough races, Joe Donnelly in the Indiana 2nd and Baron Hill in the Indiana 9th, took time out to record special get-out-the-vote messages. Please click the images below to watch. Also, please send around the link to this diary to anyone you know in Indiana.

Polls show that Hoosiers aren't very happy with the President and his Republican allies in Indiana. All indicators suggest that momentum is with the Democrats in Indiana, and given that Election Day voting in Indiana is among the earliest to close, many political pundits will be looking first to Indiana to find out just how big the national Democratic wave will be.

This all began about a month ago when I got an email from Working Assets saying I could be a pollworker and observe the integrity of the election process through Pollworkers for Democracy (P4D).  I never used to care about politics.  Then came the 2000 election. Then came the 2004 election. Then I began to search for information (because it certainly wasn't in the MSM) on what was REALLY going on with this government. Thanks to DailyKos and other blogs I became more informed. I also became more and more concerned. I became more interested - no, compelled - to do something about the erosion of our Constitution and our democracy.

Okay, so it won't be entirely Kerry-free (I do have some analysis of what Tuesday evening polling showed, which was after the media began obsessing over the topic). But I have reduced the Kerry content, kinda like KFC MOSTLY getting rid of trans-fats (which I am thrilled to hear about...KFC is a serious weakness of mine).

We have one new national poll (and 'tis a glorious one, if you are Democrat), and we have a heaping helping of individual race polling (nearly 40 races).

Follow me past the threshold for all the numbers.

This diary will be used to cover the results of the following elections: IN-02, IN-03, IN-06, IN-07, IN-08, IN-09 I am now live blogging with BWasikIUGrad at Monroe County (Bloomington, IN) Democratic HQ

Poll Closing Times (Because Hoosiers can't do DST): IN-02: 6:00 Central/7:00 Eastern; IN-03: 6:00 Eastern; IN-06: 8:30 Eastern By Court Order in Delaware County; IN-07: 6:00 Eastern; IN-08: 6:00 Central/7:00 Eastern; IN-09: 6:00 Eastern; Results on the flip....